1404 1936 Over and Over Again
How is it that the United States and Europe find themselves in 1936? Oh, to be 78 years older with the wisdom to remember the catastrophic consequences of past naïvetés!
In 1936, just 18 years after the Great War, in the midst of a world-wide depression, Franklin Roosevelt had become America’s government-will-save-us president and Adolf Hitler had total control of Germany. Both men had risen to power by offering their own versions of salvation from deep economic suffering.
Between late 1936 and 1939, in just three short years, Hitler managed to swallow the Rhineland (a huge demilitarized zone separating Germany from Belgium and France), Austria, Czechoslovakia, Poland and part of Lithuania. It was only after the conquest of Poland that France and Great Britain declared war.
During those three years, Adolf Hitler was appeased at every stage. Each step he took was preceded by Nazi-sponsored unrest in the target region. After each incursion, he promised “never again”. Three times he used “popular referendums” to justify Nazi encroachments. Every instance included claims that he was protecting or re-unifying Germans, seeking “living space” or acting justifiably for national strategic interests.
2014 administrations and geography have changed but the process, foolishly, is the same. In true Neville Chamberlain style, President Obama once again is operating as if bad guys are reasonable or honestly mistaken. After demonstrating a dogged resolve to retreat from Iraq and Afghanistan as well as drawing bright but impotent red lines, Vladimir Putin has taken the hint.
Just as with Hitler in 1936, a determined dictator studies a dawdling Europe, a leaderless western alliance and growing American isolationism. Add to all that the United States’ self-emasculation of its own military and you have a Hell-sent gift that any self-respecting ex-KGB colonel simply cannot ignore.
Unfortunately, the 1930’s will likely continue to play out again in the 20-teens. Putin’s Crimea is Hitler’s Rhineland. Putin has already been making waves over Moldova’s disputed Transnistria region; that would be Hitler’s Sudetenland. Since Ukraine blocks land access to the ethnically Russian Transnistria, it would be a perfect candidate for a 1939-style “annexation” modeled after Hitler’s conquest of Czechoslovakia.
Even if Vladimir Putin’s less-than-honorable intentions are discounted, the most valuable target for Russia is still Ukraine. Russia would love to control Ukraine’s warm water Black Sea ports, its energy resources and its infrastructure. It doesn’t hurt that Ukraine is also one of Europe’s largest “breadbaskets”.
We’ve already been here nearly 80 years ago and many times since. The record is crystal clear. Power abhors a vacuum and has no respect for a glib tongue. It mocks rose-colored glasses no matter how fashionable they are. Power yearns to act, whether for good or for evil. Weakness is its treasured target and defiant strength is its worst enemy.
Putin has seen weakness and longs to fill the vacuum. Even after all the historical rehearsals, both long-passed and very recent, one has to wonder how many people will feel a boot on their necks before the President stops believing in fairy tale diplomacy.